Saturday, January 20, 2007

Game Theory Limitations

Still not convinced. Game theory is only
clearly useful on the river and the final
half-street of betting. On earlier streets
strategy is influenced by game theory. On
the river there's a showdown winner. Only
changes if winner folds. Half-street is
when someone goes all in. Then it's a
jam or fold type chart.

Two player game.
The pot was P after the flop action.

Matrix A.

You---fold---call----RR----fold---call
Opp
C/R____-1_____M1_____xx_____xx_____xx
fold___xx_____xx____P+2_____xx_____xx
call___xx_____xx_____M2_____xx_____xx
cap____xx_____xx_____xx_____-3_____M3

On this matrix you have been check/raised
on the turn. Only when one player folds
is there a value in the cell. There's
another matrix when both players are still
competing. Most of the cells in the matrix
is empty.
Any time you are willing to fold the pot is
strange money. The C/R-fold cell is -1 because
you lose one chip on the turn by folding. The
C/R-call leads to the river matrix with the
new pot at P+2. The fold-RR you win the pot
plus two chips from opp.
This M1 has appeared in poker books in another
form. You are risking one chip to try to win
pot plus one chip. Ye is your pot
equity. Or your perceived pot equity.

Ye(P+1) > 1
Ye > 1/(P+1)

You can call when Ye is greater than
1/(P+1). Some players think they can outplay
opp on the river and call with less. That's
impied odds.
In a FL calldown situation it's really

Ye(P+1+1) > 1+1
Ye > 2/(P+2)

Which means you need greater pot equity.

With TPTK and a C/R it's a wa/wb situation.
Usually you're wb. There's rarely enough
pot equity to call when you're wb. On a
static board with no flush possibilities
you will even be drawing dead to a hidden
set.

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