Monday, December 11, 2006

It's Subjective

We know the solutions to the [0,1] games. On the
river our opponent has a hand from the space R [1,990].
This would accurately represent opponent's space if
he were not allowed to fold. Even maniacs are not
likely to hold each of the 990 hole card pairs with
equal likelihood. Our opponent's space after betting
the river is in Rb. Also Rb is independent
on opponent's style. Whose who best estimate Rb
for this opponent will achieve the best EV.
Note. The individual elements in Rb are not
equally likely. Players nearly always bets the nut
hands, while they only sometimes bet the bluffs.
Rb is not uniform.

Let's review the betting matrix on September 17.

Adam chooses bet/bet or bet/check from the matrix.
Bill then sees bet or check. Bill needs to respond
only to the bet line vector. When Adam bets, Bill
should call when Bill's LS is above S/(S+b). But
Bill only knows his LS from the space R. Bill is
estimating his LS from the space Rb. The bill
from a set of Bills who best estimate Rb will
be the ones who best deciphers the other player's
style.

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