Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Tom Weideman Challenge

It's time to reexamine the Weideman Challenge. This
challenge is for the specific case where each of two
players ante one unit. Tom and Cal are each dealt a
card from the line interval [0,1]. Tom is allowed to
bet one unit or check. If Tom bets Cal may call or
fold. This is essentially the same as betting half
the pot.

Tom should bet any card .7 or higher. Tom should
bluff .1 or lower. Cal should call .4 or higher.
Tom has a +EV of 0.1 bets.

Let's example other cases. Betting the size of the
pot. Now Tom should bet less often. Cal should call
less often. For Tom, bet .78 and bluff .11. Cal
should call .53. Tom has a +EV of 0.056 bets.

In fixed limit the bets will be much smaller than the
pot. Instinctively I tend to value bet less. This
is wrong. Value bet more often. Cal will be forced
to call more often due to the size of the pot. Tom's
bluffing frequency relative to his betting frequency
will be lower.

Note: the uniform [0,1] games now use low values as
the best values. This is a flip-flop from the
previous high values as best.

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